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tweets-美股的涨跌或与总统特朗普发推特相关

【多名乱港分子被捕】

特朗普總統在2017年5月31日手滑了一下,創造出一個新詞。他在午夜發佈了一條推特,讓人一臉懵X。

Trump’s 3:00 am tweets are also more common than 3:00 pm tweets. Trump is presumably asleep from 5:00 am to 10:00 am, according to the report, since there’s a lull in tweeting activity during that time.

美國投資機構稱,美股的漲跌或與總統特朗普發推特相關。

他很快刪除了推特。但是特朗普發現自己一不小心成了全民話題之後,在原推文發佈六小時再次發聲:“誰能猜到covfefe的真實含義??玩起來!”

報告發現,發推的內容對美國金融市場也會有影響。如果特朗普在推特上發表威脅中國的經濟發展、打贏貿易戰等言論,會給美國經濟帶來不穩定因素。

Via CNBC摩根大通也發表了一份特朗普推特Volfefe指數 ,研究特朗普的發帖習慣。

凌晨3點發的推特也比下午3點發的推特更多。根據報告,特朗普在凌晨5點鐘到早上10點可能在睡覺,發推量明顯減少。

換句話說,如果特朗普比平常發佈更多的推文,當日美股的表現就會越差。

Via CNBC來源CNBC、USA Today

這份Volfefe指數是根據特朗普著名的一條推特"covfefe" 命名的。

美銀美林首席證券分析師Savita Subramanian在報告中指出:“自2016年以來,當特朗普日發推量超過35條時,股市回報率為-9個基點;而日發推量少於5條時,股市回報率則達到+5個基點。這個結論是具有統計學意義的。”

Via Reuters美國投資機構美銀美林研究顯示,特朗普大量發推文的日子,通常也是美股下跌的日子。

“別管那些媒體的負面Covfefe”

He soon deleted the tweet, but instead of pretending it never happened, he leaned into it. "Who can figure out the true meaning of &aposcovfefe&apos ??? Enjoy!" he said nearly six hours after the original tweet went out.

If President Donald Trump wants to keep his strong stock market gains, he may want to stay off Twitter.

The brokerage’s chief equity strategist, Savita Subramanian, wrote in a note that “since 2016, days with more than 35 tweets by Trump have seen negative returns (-9bp), whereas days with less than 5 tweets have seen positive returns (+5bp) — statistically significant.”

President Trump unexpectedly unleashed a new word on the world on May 31, 2017, when he tweeted out a confusing partial sentence shortly after midnight.

分析師Savita Subramanian寫道:“ 貿易談判、政治競選類的推文——比如涉及中國、美聯儲政策和稅收政策的推文——就會導致市場波動。”

In other words, when Trump tweets more than usual, the stock market tends to fall slightly, on average.

如果特朗普總統想要保持美股強勁,他可以少發一些推。

"Despite the negative press covfefe," the tweet read, and nothing more.

Most of Trump’s tweets come around noon to 2:00 pm, with a 1:00 pm tweet roughly three times as likely to arrive at any other hour of the afternoon or evening, according to J.P. Morgan’s report.

“Trade talk, political campaigning and tweets have contributed to volatility, from China to Fed policy to tax policy,” wrote the brokerage’s chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian.

根據摩根大通的報告,特朗普的大部分推文都是中午到下午2點左右發的。下午1點是發推的高峰,發推量是下午或晚上其他時間的三倍。